April 2026 Monthly Market Summary
Global Market Update
Global markets experienced heightened volatility over the past month, driven by military action targeting Iran and its nuclear program, which sent crude oil prices sharply higher to record their largest calendar month increase (+63.3%) since before the first Gulf war in 1990. This led to a pronounced risk-off environment as fears of a prolonged conflict raised the likelihood of sustained energy disruptions and potentially pushed the global economy into stagflation. This development subsequently led to widespread weakness across global markets. Emerging Markets (EM) underperformed Developed Markets (DM), as risk-off sentiment and a stronger U.S. dollar weakened EM performance. Within EM, China (-7.2%) proved relatively resilient, while Korea (-23.7%) was the weakest performer. Global bonds also posted weak performance over the month, with bond yields rising across all regions and driving prices lower. Longer- duration investments struggled in this environment, as the longer-dated yields spiked over the month, causing longer-dated bonds to underperform their shorter-dated counterparts.
Turning to central bank actions, major central banks largely held interest rates steady over the month but shifted to a more hawkish stance, as rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions — particularly in the Middle East — renewed concerns about inflation. The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) all kept their interest rates unchanged — signalling that expected rate cuts may be delayed — while some EM central banks continued hiking to combat persistent inflation. Overall, the global policy environment shifted away from an anticipated easing cycle toward a “higher-for-longer” outlook, as central banks’ balance slowed growth against the risk of a renewed inflation surge.
South African Market Update
South African assets fared poorly over the month, with South African equities (-10.5%) posting negative returns amid a risk-off environment. The Resources sector (-15.2%) was the weakest performing sector over the month, with stocks such as Impala Platinum (-31.3%), Harmony Gold (-28.7%) and Sibanye Stillwater (-25.2%) posting meaningfully negative returns. This coincides with a meaningful decrease in precious metal prices over the month. Similarly, the Financials (-9.7%) and Industrials (-5.2%) sectors posted negative returns, with Industrials being the best-performing sector over the month, given their exposure to the rand-hedges. The Property sector (-11.4%) declined in March, bringing the Q1 2026 performance to -4.9%, as a broad-based sell-off impacted the sector. With South African bond yields increasing amid heightened global uncertainty following the escalation of the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict, this further weighed down interest rate-sensitive assets such as listed property.
South African bonds (-6.8%) sold off over the month, recording their second-largest monthly decline in more than 20 years. After recording the longest positive monthly return streak in well over two decades, South African bonds sold off with the yield curve shifting higher in a broadly parallel fashion as both the near-term inflation outlook deteriorated, and fiscal progress could be challenged. When looking at market expectations, the market pivoted sharply from pricing in 0.50% of policy rate cuts by the end of the year to now fully pricing in 1% of hikes by January 2027.