June 2026 Monthly Market Summary
Global Market and Economic Summary
Global risk assets gave back some of their recent strong gains in June 2026, with most developed equity markets ending the month modestly lower. A hawkish shift in expectations for United States monetary policy outweighed two developments that would ordinarily have been supportive: easing of the Middle East geopolitical risk and a sharp fall in the oil price. The month’s defining geopolitical event was the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, which defused the supply-shock fears that had gripped energy markets in May and sent Brent crude down more than 20% over the month. Rather than responding positively to the resulting disinflationary backdrop, investors focused on the US Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting, where policymakers pushed back against expectations for further rate cuts. This prompted markets to reprice towards a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook, weighing on global risk assets.
In a near mirror image of May, market leadership reversed in June. The technology-heavy indices that had previously driven the AI rally led the declines over the month, while more cyclical and value-oriented markets proved to be more resilient. Developed market (DM) equities generally drifted lower over the month, with emerging markets (EM) underperforming as they gave back some gains following their recent strong performance. Despite June’s pullback, EM equities remain well ahead of DM equities on a year-to- date (YTD) basis. Global fixed income returns in June were subdued but positive. The hawkish repricing lifted front-end US yields, yet global bonds still eked out a small gain in local-currency terms, while emerging market debt (EMD) (+0.7%) outperformed.
The US Federal Reserve, under new chair Kevin Warsh, was an important driver of global markets in June. Rather than welcome the disinflationary impulse from falling oil prices, the FOMC signalled that it still viewed underlying inflation as too high and pushed back against the market’s rate-cut prospects. Investors responded by pricing a higher-for-longer US interest rate path, lifting short-dated US Treasury yields and pressuring the long-duration, high-multiple technology names that had led the market higher in May. The US dollar strengthened broadly on the back of this repricing, with the US dollar appreciating against a broad basket of currencies over the month.
South African Market Update
South African equities had another difficult month, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index down 3.7% and now marginally negative on a YTD basis. As in prior months, the headline performance masked wide dispersion beneath the surface. The Resources sector (-15.9%) suffered its fourth consecutive monthly decline and was again the overwhelming drag on the broader market, as a sell-off swept through the platinum and gold miners on the back of weakening metals prices. Platinum fell 18.6% and gold fell 11.4% in US dollar terms over the month. Precious metal miners such as Sibanye-Stillwater (-28.6%), Impala Platinum (- 25.8%), Valterra Platinum (-18.0%) and Harmony Gold (-15.6%) detracted from performance. In contrast, the “SA Inc.” complex staged a rebound. Retailers were the standout performers, led by Mr Price (+15.0%) and Foschini (+7.8%). The Financials sector (+2.6%) was aided by a strong performance from banks, with Capitec (+6.5%), FirstRand (+5.3%) and Standard Bank (+2.8%) advancing, even as Absa (-3.9%) and Investec (-7.2%) detracted. Additionally, insurers were a source of strength in the Financials sector, with Momentum (+13.1%) and OUTsurance (+11.0%) posting strong returns. The Industrials sector (+2.2%) posted positive performance, though rand-hedge heavyweights Naspers (-3.7%) and Prosus (-3.9%) weighed on performance.
South African bonds (+1.5%) extended their recovery and, for a second consecutive month, outperformed both their DM and EM peers. The rally was underwritten by exceptionally strong foreign demand: non- residents were strong net buyers of local bonds in June, posting the largest single month of net purchases since 2017. The yield on the benchmark SA government 10-year bond fell 0.15% from its YTD peak of 9.40% — causing bond prices to increase.